Introduction: A Historic Treaty Put on Ice
On May 10, 2025, just days after a brutal terror attack killed 26 Hindu pilgrims in Kashmir’s Pahalgam region, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a pointed warning to Pakistan: “Blood and water cannot flow together.”
That phrase, though not new, carried fresh weight. Behind the scenes, India had already begun the process of placing the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a landmark water-sharing pact with Pakistan — “in abeyance.”
India did not formally withdraw from the treaty, nor did it stop water flows. But by freezing cooperation and halting treaty meetings, Delhi signaled a sharp escalation in its long-simmering conflict with Islamabad.
This move — subtle yet strategic — could reshape the geopolitics of water in South Asia, a region already under pressure from population growth, climate stress, and diplomatic fault lines.
What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty divided the six rivers of the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan:
- Pakistan received control over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.
- India retained rights to the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers.
The treaty has survived wars, terrorism, and decades of hostility, and is often hailed as one of the world’s most durable water-sharing agreements. For Pakistan, a lower riparian country, the treaty ensures water access for 80% of its agriculture and hydropower needs.
But for years, India has argued that the treaty is outdated and overly generous to Pakistan, especially given India’s growing population and modern water needs.
What Does “In Abeyance” Mean?
India has not terminated the treaty — doing so could have legal and geopolitical consequences. Instead, it has placed the treaty “in abeyance”, a legal term implying temporary suspension.
“Had India suspended the treaty, it would have sent the wrong signal. But it has specifically used the term ‘abeyance’ — it’s very smart and subtle politics,”
says Anamika Barua, water security expert and professor at IIT Guwahati.
This phrasing lets India retain plausible deniability.
“India will say we are not walking away. We have only told them,” she adds.
Under the freeze, India has halted bilateral meetings, withheld data sharing, and paused cooperation mechanisms under the treaty. Yet river flows remain unchanged — for now.
Why Now? Linking Water to Terrorism
The immediate trigger for the freeze was the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack, in which 26 Hindu pilgrims were killed. The attackers were linked to the banned group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), based in Pakistan.
India has accused Islamabad of harboring terror networks that operate across the Line of Control.
By linking terrorism with water, India is escalating pressure without firing a bullet.
India’s New Water Strategy: Not a Drop to Pakistan?
India’s Water Resources Minister C.R. Patil has announced short-, medium-, and long-term plans to maximize India’s use of Indus waters:
- Short term: Increase domestic use and irrigation through diversion.
- Medium term: Build storage infrastructure to control flows.
- Long term: Construct hydropower dams and barrage systems.
While no concrete blueprints have been published, media reports suggest that diversion of water and new dam construction are already being explored.
But experts urge caution.
“In the short term, stopping the river’s flow is difficult without the necessary infrastructure,” says Barua.
“And in the long run, large dams may damage ecosystems and harm downstream communities.”
What Are the Legal and Diplomatic Consequences?
So, can Pakistan challenge India’s move?
Under the treaty, disputes are typically resolved through bilateral talks, World Bank mediation, or arbitration. But with the treaty “in abeyance,” those options are frozen.
“The World Bank can only act within the framework of the treaty — which India has now put aside,”
says Gabriel Eckstein, professor of international water law.
Pakistan could approach the International Court of Justice (ICJ) — but India only recognizes ICJ jurisdiction in specific, pre-agreed cases.
“If there’s no agreement taking India to the court, India could just wave it off,” Eckstein adds.
Why This Move Could Worry Other Neighbors Too
India’s decision to act unilaterally raises regional concerns.
“Unilateral suspension of a treaty on transboundary rivers poses grave threats to regional security,”
warns Farhana Sultana, professor of geography at Syracuse University.
It sets a precedent that could alarm Bangladesh, Nepal, and China, all of which share rivers with India. Two key implications:
- Bangladesh — already tense after India-backed Sheikh Hasina was ousted in 2024 — shares the Ganga and Teesta rivers with India. The Ganga Water Treaty expires in 2026.
- China — a strategic ally of Pakistan — controls Indus headwaters in Tibet and has invested heavily in Pakistan’s hydropower sector through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India’s move could provoke countermeasures or embolden China to tighten control over shared water systems.
A Treaty Ahead of Its Time — or Behind It?
The Indus Waters Treaty was groundbreaking in 1960. But many now see it as a relic of a different era:
- Climate change has increased glacial melt, shifting river volumes.
- India’s population has more than tripled since the treaty was signed.
- Technological advances in damming and diversion have changed how water can be stored and used.
India has long advocated for renegotiating the treaty to better reflect modern demands. But Pakistan has resisted, fearing loss of water rights.
“Eventually, both countries must return to diplomacy,”
says Barua. “No treaty means no protection — for either side.”
What Happens Next?
Despite heightened tensions, experts agree that India and Pakistan must resume dialogue. Options include:
- Renegotiating the treaty with updated terms.
- Creating a new regional water-sharing framework involving China and Bangladesh.
- Involving neutral international mediators to broker future talks.
As climate volatility, terrorism, and geopolitical rivalries deepen, the cost of inaction will only rise.
Conclusion: A Turning Point for South Asian Water Politics
By placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, India has turned a slow-moving treaty into a powerful diplomatic tool. The message to Pakistan is clear: stop terrorism, or risk losing vital resources.
But the implications go far beyond two nations. In a water-stressed region where trust is as fragile as rainfall, the decision could reshape alliances, legal norms, and future cooperation across South Asia.
Water has always been a source of life. In South Asia, it is increasingly a source of leverage.
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