Claim: Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) destroyed or damaged 41 Russian strategic bombers in a drone operation named Spiderweb, marking one-third of Russia’s long-range nuclear-capable bomber fleet.
Verdict: Partly True — Ukraine did successfully carry out a deep-penetration drone attack targeting strategic Russian airbases, and satellite imagery confirms several bomber aircraft were damaged or destroyed. However, there is no independent confirmation that 41 aircraft were affected, or that the strike eliminated one-third of Russia’s entire strategic bomber fleet.
What’s the Claim?
On May 19, 2025, Ukraine launched what it called “Operation Spiderweb,” a drone strike targeting multiple Russian airbases, including some deep within Russian territory such as Murmansk and Irkutsk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later claimed the attack damaged or destroyed 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M bombers — both essential components of Russia’s nuclear triad.
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) also stated that:
- The drones used were low-cost FPV drones.
- The drones were smuggled in crates aboard trucks.
- The damage to Russian aircraft was estimated at $7 billion.
This claim was widely covered by international media including Al Jazeera, Reuters, and Ukrainian military bloggers.
What We Found
1. Confirmed Damage to Russian Aircraft
Open-source intelligence analysts and satellite imagery (via @CSBiggers, @Oryxspioenkop, and other military analysts):
- Confirmed at least 13 damaged/destroyed aircraft, including:
- 8 Tu-95s (long-range bombers)
- 4 Tu-22Ms (supersonic bombers)
- 1 An-12 transport aircraft
This damage occurred primarily at Belaya airbase (Irkutsk) and Olenegorsk (Murmansk).
2. No Independent Confirmation of 41 Aircraft Hit
Ukraine claims 41 aircraft were hit, but there is:
- No third-party or satellite evidence for 41 damaged aircraft.
- No visual proof for the remaining 28 aircraft.
- Videos from SBU show some strikes but not all.
As such, the exact scale of destruction remains unverifiable.
3. Fleet Size Context
According to 2024 IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) data:
- Russia operates approximately 60–70 Tu-95s and ~60 Tu-22Ms.
- Even if 41 bombers were damaged, it would represent closer to 20–25% of total long-range bomber capability — not a third.
4. Possible Political Amplification
While Ukraine may be inclined to project strength ahead of peace talks, Russia has offered no detailed rebuttal — only calling the attack “Ukrainian terrorism.”
Expert Insight
Military experts from Bremen University and think tanks like Penta (Kyiv) say:
- The attack was significant both tactically and psychologically.
- It likely disrupted Russian missile-launch capabilities temporarily.
- It did not directly weaken Russia’s nuclear weapons capability, as the strike targeted bombers used for non-nuclear cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
However, most analysts agree it won’t drastically change the battlefield dynamics or peace talks.