The recent wave of Israeli airstrikes, which killed hundreds of Palestinians across Gaza, marked the culmination of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to disengage from the ceasefire agreement with Hamas that was reached in January.
Since the war’s inception, Netanyahu has been balancing two conflicting pressures: families of Israeli hostages have urged him to negotiate with Hamas for their release, whereas his far-right coalition allies demand an uncompromising military offensive to eradicate the militant group. On Tuesday, Netanyahu decisively aligned with the latter—a move backed by the U.S. administration under former President Donald Trump.
Both Israel and the United States have attributed the renewed conflict to Hamas’ refusal to release additional hostages before negotiations on a long-term resolution could proceed. However, Hamas has denied these allegations and maintains that it was committed to discussing the second phase of the ceasefire, which included exchanging remaining hostages for Palestinian prisoners, a complete Israeli withdrawal, and a permanent truce.
The Ceasefire Agreement
The truce, brokered under pressure from both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump government, aimed to facilitate the safe return of hostages abducted during Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and eventually bring an end to the war.
The first phase, spanning from 19 January to 1 March, saw Hamas releasing 25 Israeli hostages and the remains of eight others in exchange for nearly 1,800 Palestinian prisoners, including convicted militants. During this period, Israeli forces retreated to a buffer zone, allowing hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return to what was left of their homes, with an increase in humanitarian aid. However, intermittent clashes and Israeli airstrikes continued, leading to casualties on both sides.
Despite these efforts, the second phase of the ceasefire was fraught with uncertainty. Netanyahu repeatedly expressed skepticism about a lasting peace, asserting that Israel remained committed to eliminating Hamas’ military and administrative capabilities.
Political Calculations Behind Netanyahu’s Decision
Choosing a permanent ceasefire could have destabilised Netanyahu’s government. His far-right allies, particularly Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, had threatened to withdraw support if he pursued peace negotiations instead of renewing military operations. Opposition parties indicated they would support an agreement focused on hostage recovery, but Netanyahu’s ruling coalition would have weakened considerably, potentially forcing early elections.
By resuming hostilities, Netanyahu secured Smotrich’s backing and even regained the support of ultra-nationalist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose party had withdrawn in January over the initial ceasefire but rejoined the government following Tuesday’s attacks.
Beyond political manoeuvring, Netanyahu’s ultimate objective of dismantling Hamas would have been difficult to achieve under the ceasefire framework. Despite enduring over 15 months of relentless Israeli bombardment, which killed over 48,000 Palestinians according to local health authorities, Hamas retained control over Gaza and continued to assert its authority.
How Netanyahu Ended the Truce
Following the expiration of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israel announced its approval of a revised U.S.-backed proposal, which required Hamas to release half of the remaining hostages in exchange for a seven-week extension of the truce and discussions about a long-term resolution. However, Hamas rejected this, citing deviations from the original January agreement and reiterating its demand for immediate negotiations on phase two.
In response, Israel imposed severe restrictions, halting humanitarian aid, cutting off electricity, and refusing to withdraw from strategic positions along Gaza’s border with Egypt—measures that further escalated tensions. As airstrikes intensified, Israel claimed it was targeting Hamas operatives, while Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire terms.
Trump’s Stance on the Conflict
While Trump initially took credit for brokering the January ceasefire, he later shifted his stance, cautioning that “all hell” would break loose if Hamas failed to release hostages. He controversially proposed the permanent displacement of Gaza’s two million Palestinian residents, suggesting that the U.S. take control of the territory for economic development—an idea embraced by Netanyahu but condemned by the international community as a violation of international law.
The Biden administration confirmed that it was consulted before Tuesday’s Israeli strikes and expressed support for Netanyahu’s decision.
With the ceasefire now in tatters, prospects for peace appear increasingly bleak.