Claim: India’s real GDP growth is only 2.6%, not the officially reported 7.8%, because the government revised the previous year’s GDP figures.
Verdict: Misleading. The 2.6% figure comes from comparing GDP estimates calculated under two different statistical series. It is not a valid alternative calculation of India’s real GDP growth. Using the same, updated GDP series, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported real GDP growth of 7.8% for the April–June quarter of FY2026–27.
What Is the Claim?
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the recent revision of India’s GDP figures. His comments were widely circulated on social media, with users claiming that the government had manipulated economic data to make growth appear stronger. Congress leaders also used the claim to allege that India’s real GDP growth was 2.6%, rather than the officially reported 7.8%. The viral posts suggested that the previous year’s GDP had been revised downward from approximately ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore, artificially increasing the latest growth rate.
What Did Garg’s Calculation Show?
The 2.6% figure was obtained by comparing:
- ₹88.27 lakh crore in Q1 FY2026–27 under the new 2022–23 base-year series; and
- ₹86.05 lakh crore in Q1 FY2025–26 under the old 2011–12 base-year series.
That comparison produces growth of roughly 2.6%. However, the two figures belong to different GDP series and were calculated using different methodologies.
Therefore, the calculation cannot be used to establish India’s actual real GDP growth.
Why Is the Comparison Invalid?
India’s new GDP series uses 2022–23 as its base year and incorporates changes in:
- Data sources
- Sectoral weights
- Estimation methods
- Price treatment
- Statistical coverage
When a new GDP series is introduced, historical figures are also recalculated using the updated methodology. This allows year-on-year comparisons to be made on a consistent basis.
Mixing a figure from the old series with one from the new series does not produce a meaningful growth rate. It compares figures that were not calculated on a like-for-like basis.
What Do the Official Figures Show?
According to the updated series cited in the report:
- Nominal GDP increased from ₹80 lakh crore in Q1 FY2025–26 to ₹88.27 lakh crore in Q1 FY2026–27.
- This represents nominal growth of approximately 10.3%.
- Real GDP increased from ₹75.46 lakh crore to ₹81.36 lakh crore.
- The resulting official real GDP growth rate was 7.8%.
The figures were released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation using the same GDP series for both years. The report also states that real Gross Value Added grew by 8.2% during the quarter. Services expanded by 10% in real terms, while manufacturing grew by 9.2%.
Does the GDP Revision Mean the Data Was Manipulated?
GDP figures are periodically revised when better information becomes available or when the statistical framework is updated. A revision alone is not evidence of manipulation. The latest revision involved the adoption of the 2022–23 base year and changes to data sources and estimation methods. Such revisions are intended to improve the accuracy and relevance of national accounts data.
That does not mean GDP estimates cannot be questioned. Quarterly figures may be revised again as more data becomes available, and GDP growth alone does not explain how income, employment or economic gains are distributed across society.
However, criticism of the methodology is different from claiming that the real growth rate is 2.6% based on an incompatible comparison.
What About Inflation?
The report notes that nominal GDP growth of 10.3% alongside real GDP growth of 7.8% implies an overall GDP deflator increase of approximately 2.3%. The GDP deflator is not the same as consumer price inflation or wholesale price inflation. It reflects price changes across the wider economy, including consumption, investment, government services, exports and domestically produced output.
Conclusion By Factcheck India
The viral claim that India’s real GDP growth was only 2.6% is misleading. The figure was produced by comparing GDP numbers from two different statistical series. It is therefore not a valid alternative calculation of real GDP growth. Using the updated and consistently applied GDP series, MoSPI reported real GDP growth of 7.8% for Q1 FY2026–27. Subhash Chandra Garg did raise questions about GDP revisions, and GDP data can legitimately be scrutinised. But the 2.6% figure circulating online does not establish that India’s official growth estimate is false or that the government manipulated the data. The 2.6% figure is based on an invalid comparison of old and new GDP series. The official 7.8% real GDP growth figure is calculated using the same updated series for both years.